Fewer homeowners are starting home improvement projects this quarter, but the ones who are moving forward are spending significantly more. Here's what HIRI's Q2 2026 Homeowner Project Activity Tracker reveals, and what it means for the home improvement industry.
Homeowners Flip Negative on Planned Spending
Based on HIRI’s latest research, homeowner spending intentions turned negative in Q2 of 2026, the first time that has happened since HIRI began tracking in Q1 of 2024. HIRI's Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker (Q2 2026) found that 30% of homeowners now plan to spend less on home improvement over the next 12 months, compared with 27% who plan to spend more. A year earlier, in Q2 2025, those numbers looked different, with 34% of homeowners planning to spend more and only 17% planning to spend less. Spending intentions have declined on net since.
The reversal coincided with a rise in economic concern. HIRI found that the share of homeowners citing inflation as a top worry increased at a statistically significant rate of 13.3% this quarter. HIRI also found the inflation concerns were driven by renewed energy price pressure and geopolitical uncertainty. The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies' (JCHS) State of the Nation's Housing 2026 publication reported a similar rise in national inflation expectations over the same period, citing the conflict in Iran as a contributing factor. That detail gives HIRI’s inflation finding a specific reference point rather than generalized economic unease.
Fewer Homeowners Completed Projects, But Spent Far More
Fewer homeowners took on a home improvement project in Q2 2026, but the ones who did more than in any other quarter over the past year. HIRI found that in Q2, only 38% of homeowners completed a project in the last 90 days, the lowest share since HIRI began tracking in Q1 of 2024, down from a recent peak of 53% at the end of 2025. Also, between Q1 and Q2 2026, HIRI found that the share of homeowner spend on more expensive projects increased at a statistically significant rate. Taken together, these figures suggest the market this quarter is consolidating rather than shrinking overall. So, homeowners’ decline in planned spend marked in the previous section may be in part driven by a recent spend increase.
Confidence Falls at Every Project Cost Tier
Homeowner confidence fell across all three home improvement project cost tiers HIRI tracks this quarter. HIRI's homeowner project activity tracker found:
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For projects under $5,000, the share who said it is a bad time to start rose from 26% to 34% from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026.
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For projects between $5,000 and $25,000, the share who said it is a bad time to start rose from 50% to 54% in Q2 2026, a statistically significant increase.
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For projects of $25,000 or more, the share who said it is a good time to start fell from 16% to 13% in Q2 2026, a statistically significant decrease.
The clearest trend within HIRI's own data sits in the lowest cost tier, projects under $5,000. The share of homeowners who said it is a bad time to start this kind of project has risen every quarter in 2025 and early 2026, and this quarter, that share exceeded the share who said it is a good time. This tier is worth watching most closely because it captures routine, lower cost work. When confidence turns negative even at that level, caution has moved beyond big, discretionary purchases.
The Home Improvement Project Planning Pipeline Splits in Two Directions
Homeowners are pulling in two directions on future projects this quarter. A growing share are moving closer to a specific decision, while a separate, larger share now have no home improvement plans for the year at all. HIRI found in Q2:
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The share of homeowners who received a bid for a project climbed from 22% to 27%, a statistically significant increase.
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The share of homeowners with no home improvement project of $5,000 or more planned for the next 12 months rose from 24% to 28%, a statistically significant increase and the fourth consecutive quarterly rise.
Read together, homeowner sentiment about the year ahead looks split rather than uniform. The share of homeowners who have received a bid is rising, even as a separate, larger share of homeowners now have no home improvement project planned for the year at all.
Income and the Economy Top the List of Reasons to Wait
Three related answers dominate when HIRI asks homeowners what would get them to start a project in the next 12 months in its Q2 2026 homeowner project activity tracker:
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An increase in household income, 41%. This response overtook the below option on the economy between Q1 to Q2 2026.
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An improved economy, 39%.
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Financial incentives, 28%.
The tracker also found that in Q2 2026, 37% of homeowners said their disposable income had worsened over the past year, compared with 23% who said it had improved, the widest gap between the two since Q2 2025. Homeowners naming income and the economy as their top reasons to wait are, in effect, describing that same financial picture in their own words.
Context From a Longer-Run Remodeling Demand Forecast
HIRI's Economic and Industry Update Report (July 2026) offers a longer-run view of the total home improvement products market. It projects total US sales will grow 2.6% in 2026 to $540 billion, then average 3.8% annual growth from 2027 through 2029. That longer-run outlook still points to renewed growth ahead, even as this quarter's homeowner data shows near-term caution. For building product manufacturers and retailers, a question worth watching next quarter is whether the gap between homeowners moving toward a project decision and homeowners planning nothing at all continues to widen. For building product manufacturers and retailers a question worth watching next quarter is whether the gap between homeowners moving toward a project decision and homeowners planning nothing at all continues to widen.
About HIRI's Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker
HIRI surveys a nationally representative sample of US homeowners every quarter to track their recent home improvement activity, spending, and plans for the months ahead. This ongoing research gives manufacturers, retailers, and other home improvement stakeholders an up-to-date view of homeowner sentiment, project activity, and purchasing behavior, complementing HIRI's broader research into contractors, building product markets, and industry forecasts. As a HIRI member, you can access the full Q2 2026 Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker, along with HIRI's complete library of home improvement research.
FAQs
Are homeowners spending more or less on home improvement in 2026?
Based on findings in HIRI's Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker (Q2 2026), homeowner spending intentions turned negative in the second quarter of 2026 for the first time since HIRI began tracking in Q1 2024. Currently, 30% of homeowners plan to spend less on home improvement over the next 12 months, compared with 27% who plan to spend more. However, among homeowners who completed a project in the last 90 days, average spending per project increased at a statistically significant rate between Q1 and Q2 2026. This suggests the home improvement market is consolidating around fewer, larger projects rather than shrinking overall.
What would motivate homeowners to start a home improvement project in the next year?
According to HIRI's Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker (Q2 2026), the top motivators for homeowners to start a project in the next 12 months are an increase in household income (41%), an improved economy (39%), and financial incentives (28%). Household income overtook the economy as the top response between Q1 and Q2 2026. HIRI's tracker also found that 37% of homeowners said their disposable income had worsened over the past year, compared with 23% who said it had improved, the widest gap recorded since Q2 2025.
Are homeowners planning home improvement projects for the rest of 2026?
Homeowner planning intentions were mixed in Q2 2026, according to HIRI's Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker (Q2 2026). The share of homeowners who received a bid for a project climbed from 22% to 27%, a statistically significant increase, suggesting some homeowners are moving closer to starting specific projects. At the same time, the share of homeowners with no home improvement project of $5,000 or more planned for the next 12 months rose to 28%, a statistically significant increase and the fourth consecutive quarterly rise. Planning intentions appear to be becoming more divided rather than moving in a single direction.
What is the long-term outlook for the home improvement products market?
Despite near-term caution among homeowners, HIRI's Economic and Industry Update Report (July 2026) projects continued growth for the total home improvement products market. Total US sales are projected to grow 2.6% in 2026, then average 3.8% annual growth from 2027 through 2029. This longer-run outlook suggests the current pullback in homeowner activity is a near-term trend rather than a break from the market's broader growth trajectory.
