What You Missed at the 2025 Home Improvement Insights Summit

The 2025 Home Improve­ment Insights Sum­mit brought togeth­er lead­ing econ­o­mists, data experts, and indus­try strate­gists to unpack what’s dri­ving today’s hous­ing and remod­el­ing mar­kets and where the next wave of oppor­tu­ni­ty may emerge — whether that me cus­tomers, chan­nels, or mar­ket oppor­tu­ni­ties. From macro­eco­nom­ic shifts to con­sumer mind­set changes and tech­nol­o­gy adop­tion, this year’s con­ver­sa­tions under­scored one theme: uncer­tain­ty is the new con­stant. As such, com­pa­nies that choose informed adap­ta­tion in the face of uncer­tain­ty keep a com­pet­i­tive advantage.

A Macroeconomic Balancing Act Amidst Uncertainty

Kick­ing off the event, Danush­ka Nanayakkara of NAHB framed the U.S. econ­o­my as one nav­i­gat­ing uncer­tain­ty at lev­els com­pa­ra­ble to what was expe­ri­enced dur­ing the response to covid-19. Not­ing that the con­sen­sus among econ­o­mists today is only a 30% risk of reces­sion in 2026, large­ly based on an AI bub­ble, and with a labor mar­ket cool­ing from pri­or highs, she not­ed the struc­tur­al shifts redefin­ing hous­ing demand.

Labor Market Has Cooled

Based on data from the Bureau of Labor Sta­tis­tics, while prime-age labor par­tic­i­pa­tion remains healthy, par­tic­i­pa­tion among those 55+ is lag­ging. There are now more unem­ployed peo­ple than there are open jobs, in con­trast to what was expe­ri­enced just a few years back, when there were two to three times more jobs open than peo­ple unem­ployed. This sets the stage for the Fed focus­ing more on sup­port­ing the labor mar­ket right now with some basis-point cuts even though infla­tion is still not at target.

Inflation and Consumer Debt Pressures Have Risen

The CPI has eased to 2.9%, and rents have sta­bi­lized, but con­sumer debt has climbed to the high­est lev­el ever seen, with cred­it card bal­ances up 41% since 2022 and auto loans surg­ing as new vehi­cle prices aver­age $50,000.

Single Family Housing Affordability Headwinds Persist

Hous­ing afford­abil­i­ty chal­lenges per­sist: the aver­age home now costs over five times the medi­an house­hold income, com­pared to three times in the 1970s. This has result­ed in the low­est home­own­er­ship rate since 2019. Yet some opti­mism remains as inven­to­ry lev­els move clos­er to nor­mal, at near­ly 6 months’ sup­ply, which is good because it will help soft­en price pres­sures on buy­ers look­ing to enter the mar­ket or make a move. Push­es to decrease reg­u­la­to­ry costs, which account for 24% ($93,870) of new home con­tin­ue to be made to try and improve the hous­ing afford­abil­i­ty issue and enable more buy­ers to enter the mar­ket. Danush­ka shared the NAH­B’s fore­cast that sin­gle-fam­i­ly starts will dip in 2025 before a mod­est recov­ery in 2026, while mul­ti-fam­i­ly hous­ing has seen a rebound in 2025 fol­low­ing a dif­fi­cult 2024.

“Res­i­den­tial remod­el­ing con­tin­ues to show pos­i­tive growth prospects,” she not­ed; a sign that home­own­ers are still invest­ing, even if they’re stay­ing put. ​“Share of spend­ing on home improve­ment increased from 33% in 2007 to 44% in Q1 2025.”

Pro Workforce Pressures and Policy Perspectives

Ken Simon­son of the Asso­ci­at­ed Gen­er­al Con­trac­tors high­light­ed the tight­en­ing con­struc­tion labor mar­ket. Con­struc­tion job open­ings specif­i­cal­ly are down 38% year-over-year, and are at the low­est point since 2017, reflect­ing weak­er demand. This com­mu­ni­cates that con­trac­tor firms don’t have enough work lined up right now to adver­tise jobs. Even still, there is con­tin­ued opti­mism for 2026 and firms are hold­ing onto skilled work­ers for as long as they can, enabling con­trac­tor wages to con­tin­ue to rise 4 – 5% annually. 

On pol­i­cy, Michael Zdi­nak of S&P Glob­al not­ed that while ​“we’re in unusu­al­ly uncer­tain times for eco­nom­ic fore­cast­ing,” he still expects con­tin­ued expan­sion with­out reces­sion. Tar­iffs, immi­gra­tion pol­i­cy, and wage dynam­ics remain key head­winds, but retroac­tive tax cuts and nar­row­ing mort­gage spreads could sus­tain growth in the near term.

Shifting Consumer and Market Dynamics

Todd Toma­lak of Zon­da shared that while home sales saw lit­tle spring lift in 2025, fall traf­fic has been strong, indi­cat­ing that con­sumers are still shop­ping for hous­ing, they just are not buy­ing yet. The pri­ma­ry rea­son? Uncertainty.

“We don’t remod­el when we’re wor­ried about los­ing our job,” Todd explained. 

That sen­ti­ment aligns with a mar­ket in flux, where the pri­ma­ry rea­son why the major­i­ty of peo­ple say it’s not a good time to buy a house has shift­ed from ​“mort­gage rates” to ​“uncer­tain­ty.”

Home Improvement Spending Growth Forecasted

Still, the long-term out­look remains con­struc­tive. Zon­da projects home improve­ment spend­ing growth in 2026, and even dou­ble-dig­it spend­ing growth in 2027 sup­port­ed by demo­graph­ics and aging hous­ing stock. This large­ly aligns with the U.S. Size of Mar­ket fore­casts HIRI has been advis­ing our mem­bers with.

Considerations for Long-Term Demographics that Will Shape Housing Growth Factors

Todd point­ed out a cou­ple of fac­tors to be think­ing about as you tem­per your expec­ta­tions for the future hous­ing and home improve­ment demand:First, Todd empha­sized that cur­rent life expectan­cy fig­ures built into econ­o­mists fore­cast mod­els do not account for improved life expectan­cies from rapid med­ical devel­op­ment from AI. Fur­ther, Todd shared an exam­ple from the 70s about how for­ma­tive expe­ri­ences cre­ate behav­ioral impli­ca­tions for decades to come. Since the last five years have been ripe with for­ma­tive expe­ri­ences, includ­ing the frus­tra­tions of first-time buy­ers in 2020 – 2025, man­u­fac­tur­ers and retail­ers should be aware of how those for­ma­tive expe­ri­ences may shape their hous­ing and home improve­ment spend­ing pat­terns for decades to come. 

The Consumer of Tomorrow

Matt Carmichael of Ipsos pulled the thread fur­ther and exam­ined how demo­graph­ic and cul­tur­al shifts are redefin­ing what con­sumers val­ue. Using the STEEP‑W frame­work, he out­lined two major forces: pop­u­la­tion declines and chang­ing hous­ing suitability.

Fewer Young Adults Entering the Housing Market Annually

Birth rates con­tin­ue to decline, cre­at­ing a ​“demo­graph­ic cliff” with 100,000 few­er young adults enter­ing the mar­ket each year, con­sid­ered a cohort effect of the 2008 finan­cial bust play­ing out, because, as Matt put it, ​“wor­ry is not a good time to have kids.” Mean­while, peo­ple are liv­ing longer, and often liv­ing longer than they have saved for, which is already about 12 years longer than when the 401(k) was intro­duced in 1978. These fac­tors are chang­ing the com­po­si­tion of house­holds and hous­ing needs.

Retrofitting Houses That Were Built for Yesterday’s Families

Much of today’s hous­ing stock, Matt warned, ​“was built for yesterday’s fam­i­lies.” Tech­nol­o­gy spend­ing often takes pri­or­i­ty when con­sid­er­ing what to spend on, includ­ing for home upgrades. In Mat­t’s eyes, the Amer­i­can Dream isn’t dis­ap­pear­ing, it’s evolv­ing. For Gen Z, free­dom out­weighs home­own­er­ship by a 3:1 mar­gin. ​“Enable people’s dreams, enable their trust,” he urged, adding that com­pa­nies that pause to con­sid­er the future and become attuned to these sig­nals grow 200% faster than those that do not.

Housing, Climate, and Risk Mitigation Behaviors

Kara Ng of Zil­low brought the con­ver­sa­tion to cli­mate resilience, call­ing it ​“no longer a social issue; it’s a hous­ing force.” With 80% of home shop­pers con­sid­er­ing cli­mate risk fac­tors, afford­abil­i­ty and insur­a­bil­i­ty are both key dur­ing decision-making.

38% Increase In Home Insurance Costs since 2019

Home insur­ance pre­mi­ums have risen 38% since 2019, while incomes grew just 22%, mak­ing cov­er­age a decid­ing fac­tor in where peo­ple buy, move, and stay. Homes in flood- or fire-prone areas sell at deep­er discounts. 

Homeowners Investing Nearly $1,000 Annually in Resilience-Based Home Improvement Projects

Fur­ther, home­own­ers are invest­ing in resilience-based projects, aver­ag­ing $952 annu­al­ly and $10,000+ in one-time projects to safe­guard their exist­ing homes. This cre­ates a clear oppor­tu­ni­ty for prod­uct man­u­fac­tur­ers in both prod­uct devel­op­ment and region­al posi­tion­ing efforts: demand is shift­ing toward resilience, effi­cien­cy, and per­son­al­iza­tion, fea­tures that align longevi­ty with tan­gi­ble home­own­er value.

AI and the Future of Home Improvement

Michael Anschel offered a provoca­tive view of where AI is tak­ing the world, includ­ing the home improve­ment indus­try, describ­ing the rise of autonomous ​“agent net­works” that will soon trans­act, nego­ti­ate, and mon­i­tor on behalf of users. These sys­tems, already being devel­oped by Microsoft and Google, could reshape every­thing from pro­cure­ment to mar­ket­ing opti­miza­tion. These agent-to-agent (A2A) sys­tems will exist along­side agent-to-busi­ness (A2B) and agent-to-con­sumer (A2C) sys­tems as well. 

Provide Human Support At Points of Frustration in the Customer Experience

Yet even amid this automa­tion, Michael remind­ed atten­dees that human inter­ac­tion remains essen­tial, espe­cial­ly at points of frus­tra­tion for your cus­tomer; these are the moments when dig­i­tal con­ve­nience must give way to human sup­port. His mes­sage res­onat­ed with the Summit’s broad­er theme: tech­nol­o­gy ampli­fies, but doesn’t replace, human connection.

Navigating Growth and Market Balance

Dave King, exec­u­tive direc­tor of HIRI, offered a ground­ed look at where the home improve­ment mar­ket stands amid ongo­ing uncertainty. 

Home Improvement Industry Forecasts Are Up-and-to-the-Right

2025 has been a slow growth year, but the good news is that it is the low­est with­in a ten-year fore­cast hori­zon. Dave empha­sized this year has been a recal­i­bra­tion, not a down­turn, and that the home improve­ment indus­try con­tin­ues to be poised for growth. Growth among Pros con­tin­ues to lead through 2025, while DIY and emer­gency repair seg­ments will sus­tain con­sumer-side strength in 2026 and beyond as infla­tion and labor pres­sures per­sist and cause more home­own­ers to choose to DIY.

What Really Drives Spend

Dave high­light­ed the analy­sis he con­duct­ed show­ing that infla­tion-adjust­ed dis­pos­able income is the most reli­able pre­dic­tor of home improve­ment activ­i­ty, not con­sumer con­fi­dence. Where there’s val­ue in look­ing at con­sumer con­fi­dence is to assess the change in con­sumer sen­ti­ment, which mat­ters more to fore­cast home improve­ment activ­i­ty than the absolute lev­el. Dave not­ed that across build­ing prod­uct cat­e­gories, nuances do mat­ter: spend­ing pat­terns vary by prod­uct type and chan­nel, which can be bet­ter under­stood by review­ing HIR­I’s U.S. Size of Mar­ket report.

Where You Can Win in 2026 and Beyond

Despite tighter com­pe­ti­tion, over half of con­trac­tors expect rev­enue growth, enabling com­pa­nies with strong Pro share to con­tin­ue to grow with them. Even still, 52% of Pros con­tin­ue research­ing prod­ucts they already buy, sig­nal­ing the val­ue of ongo­ing edu­ca­tion and sup­port, and chal­leng­ing the long-held indus­try assump­tion that Pros are inher­ent­ly more brand loy­al than oth­er customers. 

Where to Win Among Pros

Based on HIRI research, to con­tin­ue win­ning with Pros, your prod­ucts need to be easy to research, easy to buy, and easy to install. And when ques­tions or issues do arise, three in five pre­fer in-per­son resources, with the abil­i­ty to reach a per­son by tele­phone con­tin­u­ing to be crit­i­cal because Pros want to be able to con­tact a per­son quick­ly and when­ev­er they need.

Where to Win Among Homeowners

To win among home­own­ers, who expect both in-store and online pur­chase options to be avail­able to them, will take fur­ther dis­tri­b­u­tion and logis­tics efforts from man­u­fac­tur­ers and retail­ers. Based on HIRI research, home­own­ers under­stand pay­ing more ship­ping costs for larg­er items while most expect free returns regard­less of the size or vol­ume of the prod­uct. For prod­uct cat­e­gories where incen­tives can dri­ve demand, con­sid­er that few­er than one in four know about avail­able incen­tives, leav­ing clear room for bet­ter com­mu­ni­ca­tion and engage­ment to increase project activ­i­ty and grow your mar­ket share.

Addressing Multi-Channel Go-To-Market Challenges

Pan­els led by Aman­da Williams of Wray Ward and Jen­nifer Cas­ten­son of Buildx­act empha­sized the increas­ing com­plex­i­ty of reach­ing both Pro and DIY audi­ences. Man­u­fac­tur­ers cit­ed reten­tion and loy­al­ty as top chal­lenges among Pros, while DIY suc­cess hinges on afford­abil­i­ty and ease of instal­la­tion. Data inte­gra­tion and pre­dic­tive ana­lyt­ics were named as crit­i­cal capa­bil­i­ties, with retail pan­elists call­ing for stan­dard­ized UPCs, data part­ner­ships, and inte­grat­ed demand plat­forms to enable more agile deci­sion-mak­ing. As one pan­elist not­ed, ​“You can’t serve Pros or DIY­ers well if you don’t know what they real­ly need — and that starts with bet­ter data.”

Moving Forward

In a year defined by eco­nom­ic, demo­graph­ic, and tech­no­log­i­cal tran­si­tions, the pre­sen­ta­tions at the 2025 Home Improve­ment Insights Sum­mit rein­forced the impor­tance of insight-led agili­ty for home improve­ment prod­uct man­u­fac­tur­ers, retail­ers, and oth­er indus­try stake­hold­ers. Giv­en that the home improve­ment industry’s growth may con­tin­ue to con­tend with eco­nom­ic uncer­tain­ty, how well we all respond to the chang­ing sig­nals will be what mat­ters most.