Written by Dave King, Executive Director of HIRI:
I had the pleasure of listening to some of the brightest minds in home improvement and housing at IBS/KBIS/NHS. I noticed several common elements across the various organizations who presented this year.
For those who missed the presentations, here is a brief summary of the themes that stood out to me:
Forecasters margin of error is higher now than any point in the last 10 years. There is so much uncertainty in the home improvement market right now. This will continue in 2023. Consider multiple data points in making your assessments.
Recessionary talk will play on consumers minds but the fundamentals support very strong growth over the next 2 – 10 years with only a small blip in the near term. Home equity and demographic shifts are two such metrics that support 2 – 10 year growth. Most forecasts are + or — a few percentage points of flat in 2023. The news will be misleading as they focus on the negative press.
Labor is unlikely to see any significant relief in the next couple years. Fixing the labor issue is more of a 5 – 10 year solution.
Building materials will have varying levels of price change depending on the product category. You will not see a wholistic increase or decrease in BP materials costs.
Availability was the rage in 2022, being price competitive will be the issue in 2023 for manufacturers, builders and remodelers.
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