Latest U S Size of the Home Improvement Market Forecast

Navigating the Home Improvement Market Given the June 2023 U.S. Size of Home Improvement Market Forecast

Aug 21, 2023

Whether your role lies in inform­ing tar­get­ed mar­ket­ing cam­paigns, dri­ving prod­uct devel­op­ment or ana­lyz­ing con­sumer insights, stay­ing ahead of mar­ket trends and eco­nom­ic shifts is cru­cial for mak­ing strate­gic deci­sions. To aid your efforts, ana­lysts for the Home Improve­ment Research Insti­tute recent­ly released its lat­est iter­a­tion of the U.S. Home Improve­ment Prod­ucts Mar­ket Fore­cast, offer­ing valu­able insights into the state of the indus­try and the broad­er eco­nom­ic landscape.

Here’s what we know:

The Current Home Improvement Products Market Outlook

The June 2023 update to the U.S. Home Improve­ment Prod­ucts Mar­ket Fore­cast reveals a nuanced pic­ture of the industry’s per­for­mance. While the over­all out­look for growth has been adjust­ed slight­ly since the last iter­a­tion of the report, it’s essen­tial to under­stand the fac­tors con­tribut­ing to these changes.

HIRI Mem­bers will have access to the Sep­tem­ber 2023 update to the size of mar­ket fore­cast in September.

Key Figures

In nom­i­nal dol­lars, home improve­ment prod­ucts growth pro­jec­tions for 2023 have been adjust­ed from 1.3% in the March report to a neg­a­tive 0.9%.

Con­sumer mar­ket sales are expect­ed to decrease by 0.1% com­pared to the pre­vi­ous five-year period.

Pro­fes­sion­al mar­ket sales are also pro­ject­ed to decrease by 2.6% com­pared to the pre­vi­ous five-year period.

Remem­ber that growth in the home improve­ment mar­ket peaked in 2021, so today’s neg­a­tive growth rates are noth­ing to be alarmed about and there are key mar­ket dri­vers enabling a resilient out­look for home improve­ment. Although spend­ing may be eas­ing slight­ly, the mar­ket is still per­form­ing quite well, espe­cial­ly com­pared to his­tor­i­cal figures.

Real dis­pos­able income is antic­i­pat­ed to grow by 3.6% in 2023, sur­pass­ing the 2.6% that was pro­ject­ed in the pre­vi­ous report. This growth in dis­pos­able income can poten­tial­ly dri­ve con­sumer spend­ing on future home improve­ment projects.

Home Improvement Market Outlook

Look­ing ahead, the total home improve­ment prod­ucts mar­ket is fore­cast­ed to grow in com­ing years.

  • Over­all mar­ket growth is expect­ed to accel­er­ate to 2.1% in 2024.

  • The con­sumer mar­ket is fore­cast­ed to grow by 0.8%.

  • The pro­fes­sion­al mar­ket is fore­cast­ed to grow by 5.0%.

This growth tra­jec­to­ry is expect­ed to con­tin­ue into the fol­low­ing years as well.

  • Con­sumer mar­ket growth is expect­ed, on aver­age, to be about 3.6% from 2025 through 2027.

  • Pro­fes­sion­al mar­ket growth is expect­ed to aver­age 4.1% over the same period.

These growth rates sug­gest a promis­ing rebound after the short-term set­backs expe­ri­enced in 2023. Fur­ther­more, they point to an excit­ing poten­tial for home improve­ment pro­fes­sion­als tar­get­ing con­sumers or professionals.

Pros Taking the Lead

One note­wor­thy trend high­light­ed in the U.S. Home Improve­ment Prod­ucts Mar­ket Fore­cast is the expec­ta­tion that pro­fes­sion­als will be the pri­ma­ry influ­encers of home improve­ment mar­ket growth over the next five years. As men­tioned pre­vi­ous­ly, the pro­fes­sion­al mar­ket is fore­cast­ed to grow by 5.0% in 2024 alone and an addi­tion­al 4.1% on aver­age from 2025 through 2027.

This pro­jec­tion stems from sev­er­al fac­tors and is bol­stered by a pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment among con­trac­tor firms and a focus on sound sales prac­tices found in HIRI’s Con­trac­tor Top­ic Study.

The data sug­gests that more firms are expe­ri­enc­ing pos­i­tive out­comes com­pared to a year ago, with a high­er num­ber believ­ing they will do even bet­ter in the com­ing months. This con­fi­dence is more pro­nounced among larg­er firms. Addi­tion­al­ly, pro­fes­sion­als, par­tic­u­lar­ly at small­er firms, are adapt­ing to shifts in the econ­o­my by hon­ing their sales strate­gies to address weak­en­ing demand.

Merchandise Lines on the Rise

The U.S. Home Improve­ment Prod­ucts Mar­ket Fore­cast iden­ti­fies the top 10 fastest-grow­ing mer­chan­dise lines for both con­sumers and pro­fes­sion­als. These insights can help you align your prod­uct offer­ings with cur­rent mar­ket demand.

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Merchandise Lines for Consumers

  1. Soft-sur­face floor coverings

  2. Elec­tri­cal supplies

  3. Hard-sur­face floor coverings

  4. Lawn and gar­den equip­ment and supplies

  5. Nurs­ery stock and soil treatments

  6. Paint sun­dries and oth­er supplies

  7. Oth­er build­ing materials

  8. Roof­ing and supplies

  9. Paint and preservatives

  10. Tools

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Merchandise Lines for Professionals

  1. Elec­tri­cal supplies

  2. Hard-sur­face floor coverings

  3. Roof­ing and supplies

  4. Lawn and gar­den equip­ment and supplies

  5. Paint sun­dries and oth­er supplies

  6. Gyp­sum and spe­cial­ty boards

  7. Nurs­ery stock and soil treatments

  8. Soft-sur­face floor coverings

  9. Paint and preservatives

  10. Oth­er supplies

HIRI mem­bers receive access to the full U.S. Home Improve­ment Prod­ucts Mar­ket Fore­cast:

The study includes:

  • Prod­uct cat­e­go­ry – lev­el infor­ma­tion for both the con­sumer and pro­fes­sion­al mar­ket, includ­ing the dol­lar amount of sales for each prod­uct cat­e­go­ry and a cor­re­spond­ing year-over-year comparison

  • Geo­graph­ic detail for the nine cen­sus divi­sions, show­ing, for exam­ple, eco­nom­ic growth and slow­down rates as well as future fore­casts by region

  • Eco­nom­ic infor­ma­tion such as con­sumer spend­ing, sav­ing, invest­ment, mort­gage rates and employ­ment information

For full access to the report and oth­er pro­pri­etary research, join HIRI today.

Schedule a Demo

Attend the Annual HIRI Summit to Keep Ahead of Market Changes

The hous­ing and home improve­ment mar­ket con­tin­ues to change rapidly.

If your brand is to stay rel­e­vant to Pros and DIY­ers while main­tain­ing and gain­ing mar­ket share, you and your team must keep your minds sharp to cur­rent indus­try trends and cus­tomer behaviors.

HIRI’s Home Improve­ment Insights Sum­mit is the pre­mier event deliv­er­ing the lat­est insights into con­sumer and pro cus­tomers atti­tudes, dis­tri­b­u­tion chan­nel shares, and hous­ing macroeconomics.

You’ll be hear­ing from experts in the indus­try who will be bring­ing to you research-based guid­ance for under­stand­ing mar­ket dri­vers, fore­see­ing changes, and dri­ving prod­uct and ser­vice strat­e­gy and innovation.

2023 HIRI SUMMIT, September 27-28 in Chicago, Get Discounted Tickets

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Sign up for the HIRI newslet­ter to stay informed about the research we’re con­duct­ing, home improve­ment indus­try trends, and infor­ma­tion on our upcom­ing Home Improve­ment Insights Summit.